A South Sudanese internally displaced person points to the location where their house once stood before flooding that forced them to move to Algaroo Camp, in South Sudan. PHOTO/UNHCR.
By PATRICK MAYOYO
In 2019, Alessandro Rossi and Francesca Romano flew from Milan to Kenya, dreaming of a two-week romance at the luxurious Kipini Tana River Lodge, perched gracefully by the idyllic Kipini coastline.
Their arrival at Malindi Airport was smooth, and soon they were en route to their holiday sanctuary—a retreat promising sun, sand, and sumptuous indulgence.
Their first night was a dreamy escape: a dinner filled with tantalizing flavours, music that wove through the warm night air and stars that seemed to whisper promises of an idyllic getaway. But the following night, their paradise was upended in a manner more dramatic than they could have imagined.
As they slept, in the early morning a loud bang on their cottage door shattered their tranquility. A terse command — “Dress quickly, pick up your luggage, and follow me immediately”— sent them scrambling.
At the reception, they joined a small, anxious crowd of guests, learning of an impending storm threatening unprecedented flooding. The once serene Tana River Lodge was deemed unsafe, and they were relocated to a safer hotel in Malindi.
The next morning’s news was grim. The Tana River Lodge, once a jewel of the Kenyan coast, had been swallowed by the sea. The nine luxurious cottages that had stood proudly on the 10-acre beach plot were now submerged beneath the waves.
By 2020, the remaining structures had also been claimed by the ocean, leaving only the manager’s house—now perilously close to the waterline—awaiting its uncertain fate.
A section of the once vibrant and popular Kipini Tana River Lodge. PHOTO/The FabRitz/Tripadvisor.
The impact of this loss is a poignant microcosm of a global crisis. Rising sea levels, driven by climate change, have become a persistent and devastating force.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has reported that sea level rise contributes to the displacement of millions, with the World Bank Groundswell Report predicting that climate change impacts could force up to 216 million people across six world regions to move within their countries by 2050.
The report says by 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa could see as many as 86 million internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million.
The International Organization for Migration IOM) estimates that around 20 million people are displaced annually due to climate impacts, including rising sea levels. These figures underscore a broader narrative of instability and upheaval caused by climate-induced sea level rise.
In recent months, this issue has garnered unprecedented attention. The UN Security Council held its first-ever debate on the global implications of rising seas. And speakers at the conference warned that the rising seas pose “unthinkable” risks to billions around the world.
The officials said rising sea levels pose profound implications for security, international law, human rights and the very fabric of societies.
UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, emphasized that rising sea levels threaten to displace entire populations and incite fierce competition for resources.
INFOGRAPHIC/Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT).
“The impact of rising seas is already creating new sources of instability and conflict,” said Guterres, who opened the meeting.
Noting that some nations’ coastlines have already seen triple the average rate of sea level rise, Mr. Guterres warned that, in the coming decades, low-lying communities – and entire countries – could disappear forever.
“We would witness a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale, and we would see ever-fiercer competition for fresh water, land and other resources,” he warned.
Mr. Guterres told the Security Council that, under any temperature rise scenario, countries from Bangladesh to China, India and the Netherlands will all be at risk.
The UN Secretary-General added that studies show Mega-cities on every continent will face serious impacts, including Lagos, Bangkok, Mumbai, Shanghai, London, Buenos Aires and New York.
Against that backdrop, he called for action on several fronts, including broadening the global community’s understanding of the root causes of insecurity, and addressing the impacts of rising seas across legal and human rights frameworks.
“People’s human rights do not disappear because their homes do,” Mr. Guterres stressed.
Secretary-General António Guterres holds a press conference on extreme heat and climate change. PHOTO/UN/Mark Garten
Recent research adds gravity to these warnings. An international team of scientists, led by Dr. Mark Hoggard from The Australian National University, has refined projections of Antarctic ice sheet melting.
The group of researchers, utilizing historical data gathered from various locations in Australia, has presented the most precise estimate so far of the historical melting of the Antarctic ice sheet, providing a more realistic forecast of future sea level rise.
Their study suggests that while earlier estimates predicted a sea level rise of between 20 and 52 centimeters by 2100, a more realistic forecast places this figure between 5 and 9 centimeters. This new understanding is based on conditions similar to those expected in the coming century, offering a more nuanced view of future sea level rise.
The Antarctic ice sheet is the largest block of ice on earth, containing over 30 million cubic kilometers of water. Hence, its melting could have a devastating impact on future sea levels.
“If we want to know what is going to happen in the next 100 years, we need to have an accurate model for how ice sheets respond to climate change,” Dr. Hoggard said in a statement.
Yet, in Atafona, Brazil, the effects of rising seas are already manifesting in a dramatic fashion. Extreme erosion, exacerbated by climate change, has transformed this once-thriving resort town into an underwater graveyard, with over 500 houses inundated.
The resort town of Atafona has become an apocalyptic landscape due to the rising sea. The village has long been vulnerable to extreme erosion which has been worsened by climate change.
INFOGRAPHIC/Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)
More than 500 houses have already been inundated by the sea, turning the once beautiful shoreline into an underwater graveyard of ruined buildings, according to Phys.org.
The latest developments come at a time when health experts are warning about the hidden mental health complications of climate change impacts like rising sea levels, wildfires, hurricanes, cyclones, floods, droughts, mudslides and landslides among others on communities that experience them.
Studies have revealed the hidden toll of climate change on mental health includes anxiety and helplessness to depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The psychological fallout is profound.
According to, Mr Alfred Weku, a practicing psychologist in Kenya, climate change is an escalating global crisis with profound implications not only for our environment but also for human health, including mental health.
“The link between climate change and mental health is multi-faceted, involving both direct and indirect effects,” he says.
Mr Weku says natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires which are increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change cause immediate psychological trauma, leading to conditions such as acute stress disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Amidst these growing challenges, calls for action are intensifying. The UN General Assembly President Csaba Kőrösi and Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu stress the need for robust international responses.
Families identified as vulnerable to monsoon and irrigation flooding are relocated to Kutupolong camp in Bangladesh. PHOTO/UNHCR.
They highlight that rising sea levels jeopardize national identities and resources, with legal frameworks struggling to keep pace with these changes. Aurescu advocates for leveraging international law to support vulnerable nations and mitigate the impact on their coastlines.
Aurescu, who is also the Co-Chair of the International Law Commission Study Group on Sea-Level Rise, argued that climate change-related sea level poses a real risk to over two-thirds of UN Member States.
Recalling that climate change is “the greatest challenge of our generation” – Kőrösi said climate-induced sea level rise is also provoking new legal questions that are at the very core of national and State identity.
Citing projections that between 250 and 400 million people will likely need new homes in new locations in fewer than 80 years, he also warned of devastating impacts for the world’s “breadbaskets,” especially fertile deltas along the Nile, Mekong and other rivers.
“What is needed now – as ever – is the political will to act,” Kőrösi said.
Coral Pasisi, Director of Climate Change for the Pacific Community, warns of severe future impacts for small island states. She calls for immediate and decisive action to address the root causes of climate change and protect communities facing existential threats.
“This is a security issue of paramount importance to the Pacific Region,” she said, emphasizing that the security fallout of unaddressed sea level rise will fall directly under the Council’s remit.
INFOGRAPHIC/Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)
Pasisi also expressed her hope that the General Assembly will soon adopt a resolution, put forward by Vanuatu, requesting an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice on the obligations of States vis-á-vis climate change.
According to recently released data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global average sea levels have risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in the last 3,000 years.
It warns that, even if global warming is “miraculously” limited to 1.5 degrees, the planet will still see a sizeable rise in sea water levels.
The danger is especially acute for some 900 million people living in coastal zones at low elevations –one out of every ten people on earth. Devastation is already evident in many parts of the world, as rising seas have decimated livelihoods in tourism and agriculture across the Caribbean.
Sea level rise and other climate impacts are already forcing people to relocate in Fiji, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and elsewhere.
Research by the World Health Organisation (WHO) says climate change is directly contributing to humanitarian emergencies from heatwaves, wildfires, floods, tropical storms and hurricanes and they are increasing in scale, frequency and intensity.
The study shows that 3.6 billion people already live in areas highly susceptible to climate change adding between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year, from under-nutrition, malaria and diarrhoea from heat stress alone.
The IPCC report has a strong focus on the interactions among the coupled systems climate, ecosystems (including their biodiversity) and human society. INFOGRAPHICS/IPCC.
The direct damage costs to health (excluding costs in health-determining sectors such as agriculture and water and sanitation) is estimated to be between US$ 2–4 billion per year by 2030.
According to a study by Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), 2023 recorded a total of 399 disasters related to natural hazards. These events resulted in 86,473 fatalities and affected 93.1 million people.
The economic losses amounted to US$202.7 billion. The 2023 earthquake in Türkiye and the Syria was the most catastrophic events of the year in terms of mortality and economic damage, with 56,683 reported deaths and damage worth US$42.9 billion damage.
This earthquake impacted an estimated 18 million people, a total for both countries, making it the second most impactful event in terms of affected individuals. The first was the 2023 Indonesian Drought, which affected 18.8 million people from June to September 2023.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides comprehensive assessments of climate change impacts, including rising sea levels. The IPCC; Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report gives insights on the state of climate change induced impacts like rising sea levels.
The report says climate change has caused substantial damages, and increasingly irreversible losses, in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal and open ocean marine ecosystems and the extent and magnitude of climate change impacts are larger than estimated in previous assessments.
While specific numbers for deaths and injuries directly attributable to rising sea levels are challenging to pinpoint due to the complex interplay of factors involved, authoritative sources like the UNHCR, World Bank, EM-DAT, WHO, and IPCC provide valuable insights into the broader impacts and projections related to rising sea levels.
Extreme weather events like rising sea levels and ocean acidification have adversely affected the infrastructure supporting maritime tourism. PHOTO/KWS.
However, it has to be noted that all is not gloom as several actions are available to protect countries’ coastlines, including physical barriers, their costs remain out of reach for many of the countries worst affected.
The harrowing experiences of tourists like Rossi and Romano serve as a stark reminder of the broader crisis of rising sea levels. As the sea continues to rise, its effects ripples across the globe, displacing communities, destabilizing economies, and threatening the very fabric of societies. The need for global solidarity and urgent action has never been more critical.
The tide of change is rising—both literally and figuratively. As the world grapples with the implications of climate-induced sea level rise, it is clear that our response must be as profound and far-reaching as the challenge itself.
