By PATRICK MAYOYO
As world leaders gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22 for the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) they are expected to set ambitious goals to combat climate change and support vulnerable communities affected by its impacts.
The lingering question remains are they this time round going to come up with realistic and workable action plans that are going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit long-term global warming?
Of importance is to note that discussions at the conference are going to revolve around issues from previous COPs that include climate finance, Loss and Damage Fund activation, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global stocktake, carbon markets and fossil fuel transition among others.
The conference comes against a background where 2023 was the warmest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature at 1.45°C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
It marked the warmest ten-year period on record, though 2024 is well on its way to breaking that record. Heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones caused misery and mayhem, upending every-day life for millions and inflicting many billions of dollars in economic losses, according to the WMO State of the Global Climate 2023 report.
In his speech on World Environment Day 2024, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said “We are at a moment of truth. The truth is…almost ten years since the Paris Agreement was adopted, the target of limiting long-term global warming to 1.5°C is hanging by a thread… The truth is… global emissions need to fall 9% every year until 2030 to keep the 1.5-degree limit alive. But they are heading in the wrong direction.”
The statement from the UN Secretary General not only paints a grim picture on the global climate change situation but is also a call to action.
So, as governments and other stakeholders convene in Baku, for the annual UN Climate Change Conference, the question on many minds is: Will this year feature the necessary increase of ambitious action to reduce emissions and limit long-term global warming?
Climate Finance
As far as climate finance is concerned a new global climate finance target is expected to be established to replace the previous $100 billion commitment, addressing both quantity and accessibility of funds for developing nations.
Setting a new global climate finance target faces several significant challenges that includes balancing ambition and feasibility as achieving a target that meets the needs of developing nations while being politically viable for donor countries is crucial.
Most funding must come from developed nations, but expanding the donor base is necessary to maximize public funds.
It has to be noted that a substantial financing gap exists for adaptation efforts, with up to $400 billion needed annually. Currently, most funds focus on mitigation, leaving adaptation underfunded, which is critical for vulnerable nations.
Over the years climate finance often arrives unpredictably and is predominantly provided as loans rather than grants, increasing debt risks for low-income countries. Improving the predictability and quality of funding is essential to rebuild trust in the climate finance architecture.
The proliferation of various climate funds complicates access and increases transaction costs. A more streamlined approach is needed to enhance effectiveness and ensure that funds reach those most in need.
Ensuring that the new target addresses the unique needs of marginalized communities and conflict-affected areas is vital. This includes setting specific sub-targets for adaptation and loss and damage funding.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
On the other hand, countries must present updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025 to align with the Paris Agreement’s goals, as current commitments may lead to a temperature rise of 2.6-3.1°C.
The updated NDCs expected by February 2025 aim to enhance global climate action significantly. Key anticipated outcomes include the NDCs setting more rigorous emissions reduction targets, striving to align with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement, addressing previous gaps that could lead to a 2.4-2.6°C rise in temperatures.
The new NDCs, termed “NDCs 3.0,” are expected to serve as detailed investment and transformation plans, incorporating findings from the Global Stocktake and covering all greenhouse gases and economic sectors.
The NDCs will also incorporate adaptation measures with an enhanced focus on resilience-building against climate impacts, including specific strategies for loss and damage, will be emphasized to protect vulnerable communities.
The NDCs will also outline policies to spur investment in clean technologies and infrastructure, essential for achieving stated climate goals while ensuring financial needs are clearly articulated.
Carbon Credits Trading
At COP29, discussions on finalizing carbon markets instruments under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement will involve several critical steps that include approval of methodologies.
The Article 6.4 Supervisory Body will finalize and approve methodologies for greenhouse gas removals and emissions reductions, ensuring they align with the Paris Agreement goals and maintain environmental integrity.
Countries will need to create national registries or utilize the international registry for tracking Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes(ITMOs) under Article 6.2, facilitating cross-border trading of carbon credits
Negotiations will also focus on whether to centralize or decentralize the market mechanisms, addressing concerns about credit quality and double counting, which have hindered progress in previous meetings.
A timeline for the issuance of Article 6.4 Emission Reductions Units (A6.4ERs) will be established, allowing countries and private entities to begin trading these credits as part of their NDC compliance strategies.
Loss and Damage Fund Activation
Discussions will also revolve around the Loss and Damage Fund Activation with the aim to fully operationalize the fund established for climate-vulnerable communities, ensuring support for those most affected by climate impacts.
The full activation of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP29 will involve several key steps among them operational framework development where the Board will finalize access modalities and allocation parameters to ensure funds reach vulnerable countries effectively, focusing on transparency and equity in distribution.
A resource mobilization strategy is expected to be established to secure additional funding, aiming for at least $100 billion annually, with initial pledges already amounting to approximately $661 million from various countries.
The Fund is also expected to solidify its status as an operating entity within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) financial mechanism, enhancing accountability and governance.
The Board will also aim to initiate the disbursement of funds by 2025, addressing urgent climate impacts faced by vulnerable communities.
Fossil Fuel Transition
At COP29 in Baku, discussions on fossil fuel transition are expected to be contentious and pivotal. Key points include:
Some of the key issues that will be looked at are the commitment to phase out fossil fuels following the momentum from COP28. It is expected that there will be pressure on countries to clarify their commitments to reduce fossil fuel dependency and implement strategies for a just transition to renewable energy.
Hosting the conference, Azerbaijan’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest, especially with President Aliyev advocating for increased gas production. This backdrop could influence negotiations and the credibility of commitments made.
Countries will also work towards solidifying agreements that emerged from previous COPs, including the need to stop new fossil fuel projects and phase out subsidies. This includes developing national roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
It also has to be noted that there are fears that fossil fuel lobbyists may undermine discussions, as seen in past summits. Activists are calling for stricter regulations to prevent corporate interests from hijacking climate negotiations.
Overall, COP29 will be a critical juncture for advancing the global agenda on fossil fuel transition amidst complex geopolitical and economic realities.
Global Stocktake
The global stocktake is a critical turning point when it comes to efforts to address climate change – it’s a moment to take a long, hard look at the state of our planet and chart a better course for the future.
According to the Paris Agreement, Parties shall periodically take stock of its implementation to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of the Agreement and its long-term goals.
It enables countries and other stakeholders to take inventory, to see where they’re collectively making progress toward meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement – and where they are not.
It entails looking at everything related to where the world stands on climate action and support, identifying the gaps, and working together to agree on solutions pathways to safeguard our future.
Decision 19/CMA.1 outlines the modalities for undertaking the global stocktake. Parties agreed to undertake the first global stocktake in 2023, which concluded at COP28 in Dubai, and every five years thereafter.
